TY - JOUR

T1 - Vegetation-Climate Feedbacks Enhance Spatial Heterogeneity of Pan-Amazonian Ecosystem States Under Climate Change

AU - Wu, Minchao

AU - Smith, Benjamin

AU - Schurgers, Guy

AU - Ahlström, Anders

AU - Rummukainen, Markku

PY - 2021/4/28

Y1 - 2021/4/28

N2 - Amazonian ecosystems range from rainforest to open dryland vegetation, with a following decrease in biomass along the moisture gradient. Biomass can vary greatly at the ecological transition zone between grass dominated savannahs and the forest. It is not well understood if the transition zone could expand under climate change, and thereby reduce ecosystem stability and carbon storage in biomass. Here, we quantify such changes by using a high-resolution regional Earth system model under RCP 8.5 climate scenario. We disentangle the effects of climate, CO2, and land use by considering vegetation-climate feedbacks. Our results suggest that future climate change combined with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration tends to induce a larger spatial gradient of ecosystem states, increasing the transition area by ∼110% at the end of the century. Vegetation feedbacks generally amplify the climate effect by intensifying the climate-induced warming and drought, further enhancing spatial heterogeneity.

AB - Amazonian ecosystems range from rainforest to open dryland vegetation, with a following decrease in biomass along the moisture gradient. Biomass can vary greatly at the ecological transition zone between grass dominated savannahs and the forest. It is not well understood if the transition zone could expand under climate change, and thereby reduce ecosystem stability and carbon storage in biomass. Here, we quantify such changes by using a high-resolution regional Earth system model under RCP 8.5 climate scenario. We disentangle the effects of climate, CO2, and land use by considering vegetation-climate feedbacks. Our results suggest that future climate change combined with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration tends to induce a larger spatial gradient of ecosystem states, increasing the transition area by ∼110% at the end of the century. Vegetation feedbacks generally amplify the climate effect by intensifying the climate-induced warming and drought, further enhancing spatial heterogeneity.

KW - above-ground biomass

KW - Amazonian ecosystems

KW - spatial heterogeneity

KW - vegetation feedback

U2 - 10.1029/2020GL092001

DO - 10.1029/2020GL092001

M3 - Letter

AN - SCOPUS:85105007138

VL - 48

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 8

M1 - e2020GL092001

ER -