Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Standard

Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century. / Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas; Bjørnsson, Anders Boding; Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck; Stendel, Martin; Hansen, Birger; Elberling, Bo.

In: Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 512–513, 2015, p. 672-681.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articlepeer-review

Harvard

Westergaard-Nielsen, A, Bjørnsson, AB, Jepsen, MR, Stendel, M, Hansen, B & Elberling, B 2015, 'Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century', Science of the Total Environment, vol. 512–513, pp. 672-681. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.01.039

APA

Westergaard-Nielsen, A., Bjørnsson, A. B., Jepsen, M. R., Stendel, M., Hansen, B., & Elberling, B. (2015). Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century. Science of the Total Environment, 512–513, 672-681. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.01.039

Vancouver

Westergaard-Nielsen A, Bjørnsson AB, Jepsen MR, Stendel M, Hansen B, Elberling B. Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century. Science of the Total Environment. 2015;512–513:672-681. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.01.039

Author

Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas ; Bjørnsson, Anders Boding ; Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck ; Stendel, Martin ; Hansen, Birger ; Elberling, Bo. / Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century. In: Science of the Total Environment. 2015 ; Vol. 512–513. pp. 672-681.

Bibtex

@article{981e8fac800f4068908163e84285dc71,
title = "Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century",
abstract = "Abstract The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000–2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85 years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000 years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500 years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.",
keywords = "Climate changes, Vegetation response, TI-NDVI, Biomass, Sheep grazing, Greenland",
author = "Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen and Bj{\o}rnsson, {Anders Boding} and Jepsen, {Martin Rudbeck} and Martin Stendel and Birger Hansen and Bo Elberling",
note = "CENPERM[2015]",
year = "2015",
doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.01.039",
language = "English",
volume = "512–513",
pages = "672--681",
journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
issn = "0048-9697",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st Century

AU - Westergaard-Nielsen, Andreas

AU - Bjørnsson, Anders Boding

AU - Jepsen, Martin Rudbeck

AU - Stendel, Martin

AU - Hansen, Birger

AU - Elberling, Bo

N1 - CENPERM[2015]

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - Abstract The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000–2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85 years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000 years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500 years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.

AB - Abstract The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000–2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85 years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000 years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500 years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.

KW - Climate changes

KW - Vegetation response

KW - TI-NDVI

KW - Biomass

KW - Sheep grazing

KW - Greenland

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.01.039

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.01.039

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 25679480

VL - 512–513

SP - 672

EP - 681

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

SN - 0048-9697

ER -

ID: 131406250